By Elena Fabrichnaya and Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW (Reuters) – The Russian rouble is expected to keep changing hands for around 100 per U.S. dollar at the start of 2025 and gradually weaken to 108 towards the end of the year, a Reuters poll of 10 economists showed on Friday.
The rouble fell to its lowest level in about 2-1/2 years in November as the U.S. imposed new financial sanctions on Russia, but it has regained some ground since then after the central bank intervened to support it.
Most analysts believe that the 100 mark against the dollar is the new equilibrium level as the situation with foreign trade transactions, disrupted by sanctions, stabilises, while other factors will support the rouble.
Analysts noted that the first quarter of the year is traditionally favourable for the rouble as imports, overseas travel and external debt payments decrease.
The rouble slumped to 103.7 against the U.S. dollar on Friday after the central bank announced it would withdraw some support for the currency in the first working week of 2025 following the New Year break.
Analysts predicted that the central bank would hold its benchmark interest rate at 21% throughout the first half of 2025 after it surprised markets on Dec. 20 by keeping rates unchanged.
“We expect the central bank to keep the key rate at 21% at the meeting on Feb. 14. We believe that lending will continue to slow down, aligning with the regulator’s forecast for 2025,” said Mikhail Vasilyev from Sovcombank.
Russia’s central bank has hiked its key rate to the highest level in more than 20 years as it seeks to curb inflation, which analysts expect to be at 9.8% this year, and to counter economic overheating as a consequence of excessive government spending.
Analysts are estimating GDP growth of 3.9% in 2024, slightly above their previous call of 3.8%. In 2025, economic growth is forecast to slow sharply to 1.6% due to the central bank’s monetary tightening.
Analysts foresee inflation rates falling to 6.6%, closer to the regulator’s target of 4%, towards the end of next year, creating room for the central bank to reduce its benchmark rate to 18% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
(Writing by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
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