By Rahul Trivedi and Pranoy Krishna
BENGALURU (Reuters) – India retail inflation likely fell to 5.53% in November after breaching the central bank’s 6% upper tolerance band as the arrival of fresh produce to markets moderated soaring vegetable prices, a Reuters poll of economists found.
The Reserve Bank of India held interest rates steady last week, as predicted in a separate Reuters poll, citing price pressures, despite news of a surprise sharp slowdown in economic growth last quarter.
Inflation unexpectedly rose to a 14-month high of 6.21% in October, driven by the fastest vegetable price rises in nearly four years. An additional import duty imposed on edible oils in September has also increased price pressures significantly.
But inflation as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI) likely slipped to 5.53% last month, according to the median estimate in a Dec. 4-9 Reuters survey of 56 economists.
Forecasts for the data, set to be released on Dec. 12 at 1030 GMT, ranged from 5.00% to 6.10%. Only two economists expected inflation to be at or above the top end of the RBI’s 2% to 6% tolerance band.
A fall in inflation will be welcomed by households in the world’s most populous country, where food takes up a large chunk of budgets.
“Vegetable prices are showing first signs of moderation and edible oil prices are also stabilizing after the duty hikes,” wrote Rahul Bajoria, head of India and ASEAN economic research at BofA Securities, in a recent note.
Bajoria said this season’s harvest of crops will “act as a dampener on prices over the medium-term.”
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy and is seen as a better gauge of domestic demand, was forecast to be steady at 3.70% in November, according to the median estimate from a smaller sample of 29 economists surveyed.
“Overall, India’s high headline inflation remains narrowly based on vegetable prices, excluding which, inflation is below 4%,” said Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ.
“A host of food inflation determinants beyond weather (such as farm input cost inflation, per capita income growth and food demand) are easing, lending credence to the view that food inflation will fall decisively in the coming months,” he said.
The Indian statistics agency does not publish core inflation data.
Last week, the RBI downgraded its growth forecast for this fiscal year to 6.6% from 7.2%, while increasing its inflation estimates to 4.8% from 4.5% for the same period, highlighting concerns over food inflation.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation was expected to have been 2.20% in November, down from 2.36% in October, the survey showed.
(Reporting by Rahul Trivedi and Pranoy Krishna; Polling by Veronica Khongwir and Susobhan Sarkar; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley and Jonathan Oatis)
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