By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 22 (Reuters) – The Nasdaq sailed to a new a high on Tuesday, lifted by a wave of positive momentum around the AI outlook and another decline in global oil prices, while investors turned their attention to the US-China leaders’ summit in Washington later this week.
In my column today, I look at the US-China artificial intelligence arms race, and what’s behind the sudden outbreak of apocalyptic warnings about the technology’s threat to mankind. These warnings have proliferated just as worries are deepening that China’s cheaper AI will expose the expensive US model as highly uneconomical.
Today’s Key Reads
• Trump says Iran deal nearing, Tehran offers Hormuz reopening
• As Trump and Xi meet, investors play both sides of AI divide
• From smart glasses to AI pins, privacy fears challenge tech’s next big bet
• Losing the plot? Warsh’s Fed more ‘touchy-feely’ than data-driven: Mike Dolan
• Corporate bond buyers get picky with flood of AI debt
• Today’s Key Market Moves STOCKS: Nasdaq +0.5% to new record high, S&P 500 flat, Dow -0.4%. Europe flat, UK -0.3%.SECTORS/SHARES: Five sectors on the S&P 500 rise, six fall. Materials +2%, financials -2%. Chip stocks +2%. SanDisk +7%, Micron Technology +5%. GoDaddy, Charles Schwab -6%.FX: Dollar edges up to 7-week high. South Korean won up 1.3%, best day in a month.BONDS: Treasuries little-changed across the curve. 2-year auction pretty soft, despite highest yield since May 2023.COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil falls for fifth day, longest losing streak since August last year. Average US diesel up to new high $6.5276 a gallon. Gold slips.
Today’s Talking Points:
Gotta get a message to you
After the flurry of major central bank decisions over the last 10 days comes the even bigger flurry of policymaker speeches, interviews, and media appearances. Do market expectations move all that much from where they were the day of these decisions and press conferences by chiefs Warsh, Lagarde, Ueda and Bailey? Not really, because the general consensus views and likely policy paths, such as they exist, have already been laid out.
There are 19 Fed policymakers (although only 12 voters at any one time), and 27 ECB rate-setters – that’s a lot of commentary for investors to ignore. The BoE and BOJ’s nine-strong policymaking committees are positively lean by comparison. Investors are more likely to take their lead in the coming days from elsewhere – fresh economic data, corporate developments, geopolitics, Middle East energy supply shifts.
Oil slick
Global oil prices are back below $100 a barrel, with Brent and WTI crude futures falling on Tuesday for a fifth straight day. That’s the longest downward streak for both benchmarks in over a year. Could the market be at a turning point? Has the second oil shock of the Iran war come and gone? It would probably be unwise to be too confident, but a peace deal in the offing and more supply potentially coming back onto the market could have a significant impact.
All that is hypothetical right now. Oil is still up 50% from a year ago, and analysts estimate that up to half of the US inflation overshoot is down to elevated energy and commodity prices. But a sustained decline would wipe much of that away, and call into question the recent strengthening of market rate hike expectations – and policymaker signaling – across much of the developed world.
Disunited Nations
The United Nations General Assembly is in full flow, with nearly 130 world leaders gathered in New York. That’s not a great turnout, which may reflect the old world order of multilateralism, globalization and cross-border cooperation gradually giving way to one characterized more by nationalism, bilateral agreements and de-globalization. The biggest ‘no-show’ is Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will meet Trump in Washington later this week.
Trump addressed the UN assembly today (prompting a walkout by the Cuban delegation), and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres gave his final address, in which he called for greater curbs on AI. One wonders how many world leaders will be showing up at the annual jamboree in 5 or 10 years’ time (presuming AI hasn’t wiped out mankind by then).
What could move markets tomorrow?
• Global PMIs (September, flash estimates)
• Indonesia interest rate decision
• European Central Bank officials scheduled to speak include chief economist Philip Lane and board member Piero Cipollone
• US Treasury sells $70 billion of 5-year notes at auction
• US Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include Governor Michael Barr
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(Reporting by Jamie McGeever;)
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